French Election Bigger Picture

Coming up later this week the French election could have impacts on the U.S economy and Global Markets. This election is so interesting because of the differences in economic ideas from the candidates. Marine LaPen is a radical anti-globalist that wants to remove France from the European Union, create new trade barriers and possibly drop the Euro and create a new lower value currency. This new currency she says will not only help the current national debt but make French exports more competitive. On the flip side, Emmanuel Macron is a former banker and socially liberal running on the policy of increasing the competitiveness of the economy by embracing globalization and free trade. He is a supporter of the Euro and remaining in the European Union.

Image result for french election

So you might ask yourself, how does this affect the economy in the United States? People are beginning to question exactly what is going to happen if in fact France leaves the European Union. Some people suggest that the market will be just fine and react in a similar way to Brexit (United Kingdom leaving the European Union). “An outright victory by [far-right populist] Marine Le Pen in France is likely to trigger a global equity selloff but the U.S. stock market will be the first to recover,” said Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW. Others suggest that France leaving the European Union along with the UK will have a greater impact because of the magnitude of these nations. Also, could France leaving the EU open the door for other nations to leave the EU? This could create a bigger hit to the U.S stock exchange and global markets.

Personally, I believe that the overall markets will be fine. Markets tend to overreact to unexpected outcomes but in the end return to normal levels like we have seen with Brexit and the Trump election this past year.

Johnny Coughlin


6 thoughts on “French Election Bigger Picture

  1. jacknedorostek

    Johnny, very interesting post! It will be interesting to see how France votes given these extremist candidates, it seems to have a bit of a connection to the United States’ most recent election. Furthermore, I agree that regardless the results the economy will find its way back to steady state. However, I am anxious to see if France decides to leave if other countries will follow suit.

  2. nickbotta

    Great post Johnny! It will be interesting to see if LaPen gets elected how her new currency and exit from the EU would end up affecting France, the U.S., and the global economy. It is crazy to think the European Union could be nearing its end if LaPen is elected and other countries follow and what that would mean for the world. I enjoyed your point about the markets and their overreactions then returning to normal levels and I am in agreement with your opinion.

  3. cnhend19

    I find it interesting that even though candidates often take extreme stances, markets often return to more natural states.

  4. mikelaffin22

    Great post Johnny! I agree with you that the US and global economy will be able to recover if France leaves the EU. However, if France leaves the EU, then that will be the second large nation to do so in recent times. This could cause a domino effect in the EU where more and more nations decide to leave, which will most definitely impact the US and global markets negatively.

    Mike Laffin

  5. ersull18

    This is even more interesting given the fact that Macron won with a wide margin, which could have been a response to the American election. Interestingly, after the results, Trump congratulated Macron and said that he is looking forward to working with France in the future. In response, Macron issued a statement inviting US scientists working on climate control to come work with French scientists, seemingly undermining Trump’s anti-climate change stance. Interactions such as these point towards potential tension in the coming years. What wold it look like if the US became more conservative as Europe became increasingly liberal?


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